MCF CRE · CRE Tools
Sensitivity & Scenario Table
Heatmap of returns across exit cap rate × NOI change — the institutional underwriting standard.
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Axis: Exit Cap Rate
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Axis: NOI Change
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Levered IRR · Cap Rate (cols) × NOI Δ (rows)
7 × 6 grid
| NOI Δ ↓ / Cap → | 5.00% | 5.50% | 6.00% | 6.50% | 7.00% | 7.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | 9.93% | 4.68% | -0.70% | -6.43% | -12.84% | -20.63% |
| -5% | 13.08% | 8.16% | 3.23% | -1.87% | -7.32% | -13.44% |
| +0% | 15.92% | 11.26% | 6.66% | 2.00% | -2.84% | -8.04% |
| +5% | 18.53% | 14.07% | 9.71% | 5.37% | 0.96% | -3.65% |
| +10% | 20.93% | 16.63% | 12.47% | 8.38% | 4.28% | 0.08% |
| +15% | 23.17% | 19.00% | 15.00% | 11.10% | 7.23% | 3.34% |
| +20% | 25.26% | 21.20% | 17.33% | 13.58% | 9.91% | 6.25% |
Base Case
Midpoint NOI Δ × midpoint cap
5.37%
NOI +5% · 6.5% exit cap
Bull Case
Best NOI × lowest cap
25.26%
NOI +20% · 5% exit cap
Bear Case
Worst NOI × highest cap
-20.63%
NOI -10% · 7.5% exit cap
All calculators are for informational and illustrative purposes only. Results do not constitute a commitment to lend. Actual loan terms depend on underwriting, market conditions, and lender approval. Consult a licensed financial or tax advisor before making investment or financing decisions.